Top 5 Cardinals Stories of 2009

Well, it's that time of year again when we sit back, try to relax and recover from our eggnog hangovers, and have meaningful conversations with our friends like "what's the true meaning of Christmas," and "what are you going to do in 2010 to make your life better," and "what were the top 5 Cardinals headlines of 2009?" Yes, my friends, this is as important a concept as your New Year's resolutions. So don't take lightly the fact that I painstakingly sat here for over 15 minutes to write this entry.

All jokes aside, the reason this didn't take long was because there were 5 fairly obvious (in my humbly awesome opinion) stories that were tops on the list of Cardinals related news and hoopla this past year. So, without further adieu, here's the list.

1) The trades for Holliday, DeRosa, and Lugo.

Yes, I included all three. We all know which one mattered the most, but the others were equally important. The DeRosa deal came first, and for some of us it was expected (as he fit our needs perfectly), but even then it was a shift in the organizational policy in the view of many fans. The front office proved they were willing to trade their "faberge eggs" for some veteran talent (for the record, I hate that term and disagree with the sentiment, but that's neither here nor there). After those shock waves, Cardinal Nation received a seismic jolt from a trade many never actually expected to happen but secretly wished for more than they wanted a iPod Touch for Christmas - Chris Duncan to whoever for anything more than a bag of baseballs (used, I might add). When we not only had the gall to trade him over his dad's head, but to get a semi-serviceable return for it, Cardinal Nation was shocked. Yet, Mozeliak saved the best for last, sending out best prospect out west to bring in that 4th hole hitter that LaRussa coveted so, in the form of one Matt Holliday. Again, Mo proved that there was no organizational policy on "opening day payroll being end of year payroll" and that the, for lack of a better term, ridiculously absurd "faberge egg" concept never existed.

2) The Cardinals win the NL Central

At the beginning of the year, the Cardinals were ranked as a competitive team and as a team that could perhaps compete for the NL Central title, but most publications had the Cubs as the runaway favorite following their 97 win 2008 season. The Cardinals stormed out of the gate amid help from unexpected sources, and the Cubs, as became clear early in the season, were not the same team as the year before after losing Mark DeRosa. It was a tight battle until the aforementioned trades, after which the Cardinals went on an early 2nd half tear and had the NL Central title all but sewn up with a month left to play.

3) Albert Pujols wins the NL MVP

This award was neither unexpected nor unwarranted. Pujols has become an MVP machine (nod to his ESPN commercial) and is finally (what the heck took so long?) considered by everyone to be the best player in the game of baseball, as well as possibly the best player of this generation and one of the all-time greats. Kudos to Albert for continually performing at such a ridiculously high level. What a treat for us Cardinals fans.

4) Wainwright and Carpenter lose the Cy Young

I'm not going to get into this much given my level of frustration. And not with Lincecum. He was as deserving of the award as Carp and Wainwright, no question whatsoever. It's more the whole Keith Law is a freaking moron for leaving Carpenter off of his ballot issue. That's all I'm going to say.

5) Matt Holliday's free agency

So is this a story for 2009 or 2010? Well, it's really a story for both. His then-impending and now-current free agency has captivated us since the end of the season. So, as far as I'm concerned, that counts as 2009. However, whether or not he signs with us (which is currently looking more optimistic than ever for us) will impact us in 2010. Personally, I hope he signs for the guesstimated 5-year deal. That would give us a World Series caliber team for probably the next 3-4 years. But that's another story for another time.

So, there you have it Cardinals fans. The top 5 Cardinals stories of 2009 as chosen by me. Be sure to check out the other UCB blog entries and all of their picks for the top 5 Cardinals stories of 2009 by checking in here periodically.

-kotheb

Cardinals Under Contract: Chris Carpenter

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Contract Terms: Chris Carpenter signed a new contract with the Cardinals after the 2006 World Series Championship. The contract was worth $63.5 million over 5 years with a club option for 2012.

2007: $8.5 million
2008: $10.5 million
2009: $14 million
2010: $14.5 million
2011: $15 million
2012: $15 million (Club Option - $1 million Buyout)

The Rationale Then: Carpenter finished 3rd in the Cy Young Award voting in 2006 after winning the award in 2005. After missing the 2003 season due to injury, he averaged over 200 innings pitched from 2004 through 2006 as well. Carpenter also had an ERA+ of 139 during that period. Everything pointed to Carpenter anchoring the Cardinals rotation for the length of his contract. The Cardinals paid a very competitive price for Carpenter in 2006, although $15 million is a discount for an ace three winters later.

The Outlook Today: Hindsight is certainly 20/20. Carpenter's current contract replaced the final year of his previous deal worth $7 million and an option for 2008 worth $8 million. By agreeing to the current deal, the Cardinals paid an additional $4 million for Carpenter's injury riddled 2007 and 2008 campaigns. Carpenter resoundingly returned in 2009, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young Award voting. $14 million is a bargain price for a season that Fangraphs valued at roughly $25 million on the open market.

Moving Forward: Entering the 2010 season, Carpenter is certain to remain with the team for two seasons before the Cardinals must decide on his 2012 club option. There is not a significant concern that a healthy Carpenter would regress and not be worth his contract because he only has two states: Ace or Injured. If Carpenter remains healthy during the next two or three seasons, the overall contract will likely be viewed in a positive light despite the two lost years at the beginning. However, if Carpenter misses significant time during the remainder of his contract it will serve as a caution to the club in offering long-term contracts to pitchers with such questionable injury histories.

Chris Carpenter's current contract affirms the Cardinals typical aversion to long-term contracts for pitchers. It is impossible to predict what will happen with Carpenter's option year and beyond right now because there are too many unknowns. Carpenter will be 35 in April 2010, so he is unlikely to see another truly long-term contract in his career unless he pitches at a high level and healthy for the next three seasons in their entirety. Even then, he seems likely to end up in a situation similar to Andy Pettitte, currently pitching on single year contracts with the Yankees each year since 2007.

-ambill10
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Cardinals Under Contract: Introduction

The inaugural post of the new Baseball Economics Series!

The Baseball Economics Series will eventually cover many aspects of the economic side of Major League Baseball and especially our St. Louis Cardinals. One of the most important aspects of the economics of the Cardinals organization is their MLB player payroll. The payroll varies from year to year, but one part of the future payroll is already set in the form of long-term contracts with current players.

All contracts in Major League Baseball are guaranteed for their full length basically (with the exception of incentive bonuses and options). The St. Louis Cardinals currently have 5 players under contract through 2011 or longer; Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Ryan Franklin, and Yadier Molina. Additionally, the team holds club options for 2011 with Trever Miller and Albert Pujols. Adam Wainwright is under contract with the team longer than any other player with a club option for the 2013 season ending his current deal.

While long-term contracts only pertain to this small number of players, they are the talented core around which the Cardinals are built. Including the options for Pujols and Miller, these 7 players' salaries would be over $60 million in 2011. Beginning tonight, we will be releasing an analysis of each player's contract situation. For each of these 7 contracts, we will look at the terms of the contract, the rationale at the time of the signing, how the contract looks in December of 2009, and what the outlook for the remainder of the contract might be.

Chris Carpenter

Adam Wainwright

Kyle Lohse

Ryan Franklin

Yadier Molina

Trever Miller

Albert Pujols

Matt Holliday

This series of posts would not be possible without the information available on Cot's.

Pujols and Holliday

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Scott Boras has tried to goad the Cardinals at times this offseason by linking the outcome of negotiations to the likelihood of Albert Pujols returning. Boras will certainly not appreciate Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, undercutting this negotiating ploy today. Lozano told Joe Strauss of the P-D that "Albert respects Matt and would love to have him as a teammate and hopes he gets his money, but Matt’s situation must be seen as independent of Albert’s.”

It is not surprising that today Boras also unveiled that Holliday has received offers from "another East Coast team" besides Baltimore, in addition to the Cardinals' standing offer. It seems that Mr. Boras is becoming more desperate by the day and his mystery East Coast team defies logic. The Red Sox signed John Lackey and Mike Cameron in the past week. The Phillies are set in the outfield and just spent on Roy Halladay. The Yankees traded for Curtis Granderson and are about to sign Nick Johnson per Buster Olney. The Mets are the current favorites to land Jason Bay for their open spot in left field.

We are running out of East Coast teams to plausibly bid for Holliday's services, but introducing a "mystery team" is a vintage Boras strategy. Maybe he has really found a big pocket suitor to big against the Cardinals, but my gut tells me this is all smoke and mirrors. Hopefully the whole situation is resolved one way or the other before January; I know what I'd like for Christmas...

-ambill10
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The Value of Jason LaRue

Why is Jason LaRue so valuable as he
returns for a third season in St. Louis?

One of the first matters of business in the St. Louis Cardinals offseason was to ensure that Jason LaRue would be the team's backup catcher for the third consecutive season. The contract is a one year deal for $950,000, the same salary LaRue earned in 2009. Yadier Molina has started 250 out of a possible 324 games in the past two seasons with LaRue as his backup. Molina's durability poses a unique challenge for his backup who must be able to spell the starter ably without the benefit of regular playing time.

The signing added a fourth catcher to a 40-man roster that already included starter Yadier Molina and prospects Matt Pagnozzi and Bryan Anderson. Both Pagnozzi and Anderson would have made less than half of LaRue's 2010 salary in the same role, but neither is considered ready for the major leagues to begin the 2010 season. Bryan Anderson has been a top prospect in the system since he was drafted almost, but he was injured in 2009 and his defense and power have yet to develop. Matt Pagnozzi is considered a major league ready catcher defensively, but he continues to struggle at the plate. Their respective limitations necessitate more time to develop in the minor leagues for both Anderson and Pagnozzi.

In his limited playing time, LaRue has posted just a .632 OPS in a Cardinal uniform. While a backup catcher is not expected to be a great offensive weapon, LaRue's run production in his time in St. Louis has been sporadic at best. LaRue's defensive ability is still intact, though, and he has allowed just 23 stolen bases in the past two seasons while gunning down 36% of those that attempt to run on him. The Cardinals prefer a defense-first for player for this role, so LaRue's production was enough to make him a strong candidate for a third season in St. Louis.

Other free agent catchers like Jason Kendall, Brian Schneider, and Ivan Rodriguez have all received two year contracts already this offseason. The Cardinals were most likely only interested in a one year commitment since Anderson and Pagnozzi already played in AAA last season. LaRue fits a unique niche as a veteran that is still able to start the occasional game behind the plate but recognizes that his skills have declined enough to accept this role rather than seeking a starting opportunity like those listed above. While LaRue will make more than the league minimum, a salary under $1 million for a veteran player is very affordable.

According to Fangraphs, Jason LaRue has been a 0.5 WAR and 0.3 WAR player in 2008 and 2009 respectively. It is actually somewhat impressive that he was able to acheive those values considering his limited playing time. If LaRue can provide a similar value to the organization in 2010 then his $0.95 million contract will be a good investment for the Cardinals for the second year in a row. Jason LaRue offers enough production and potential at a very low pricetag. This is where LaRue's true value lies, the amount of money that the team can confidently spend elsewhere on the roster knowing that they have an able veteran in the case of an injury to Yadier Molina. As the Cardinals try to balance rising salaries of star players with fielding a competitive team in St. Louis, players like Jason LaRue are crucial to the organization's success.

-ambill10

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New Series and Upcoming Posts

After discussing how to move forward and make Busch Birds the best Cardinals blog it can be, kotheb and I have decided to change some of our approach. We will no longer be posting Series Previews and Recaps or Game Recaps during the baseball season. Instead, we are going to focus our content in a new way to hopefully make this a more enjoyable visit for all of you.

We will be maintaining a core group of series during the coming months. Some will run continuously into the future while others will occur annually during the offseason. Each of our series will have a new post at least once a week to hopefully keep you, the reader, interested in the series. We are going to be revamping our Prospect Introduction Series in this new approximately weekly post format. We will also be adding some new series, including a Baseball Economics Series, a 2009 Season in Review Series, and an Organization Depth Chart Series. Below is a synopsis of each new series that will begin appearing this week.

The Baseball Economics Series is a project that I am very excited about. I just completed an Economics of Sports course with a well respected sports economist that regularly appears in the media both locally and nationally. I will be taking the information that I learned in that class about the economics of Major League Baseball and applying it to events of interest to Cardinals fans. The first post in this series will look at the economic impact of the current long term contracts in the Cardinals organization on the team's ability to retain Albert Pujols and possibly Matt Holliday well into the next decade. Check back on Thursday for this inaugural Baseball Economics Series post.

The 2009 Season in Review Series will look at the individual performance of members of the St. Louis Cardinals during the 2009 season. The series will also discuss published projections for each players success in 2010 and beyond. If you have any requests for players to be discussed sooner rather than later please use the comment section of this post. The first post in this series is currently slated to cover Brendan Ryan's breakout 2009 season and will be available on Friday.

Finally, the Organizational Depth Chart Series will take a slightly different angle on the top prospects list that many Cardinals aficionados publish during the offseason. Rather than approaching the entire organization as a group, each entry in the series will highlight the top talent that the organization has to offer at a specific position. The first position to be examined will be the catchers in the Cardinals organization. Check back on Sunday for that post.

In between posts for each series we will continue to post about the offseason happenings as they occur. Hopefully this has given you some insight into where we are trying to take Busch Birds. I think we will be able to produce more consistently interesting content in this new approach. As always, we want our readers to enjoy spending time on our site so your feedback is welcome and necessary for Busch Birds to continue improving.

-ambill10

What Can Duncan Do With a Penny?

A look at how the root of Brad Penny's previous success
plays right into Dave Duncan's coaching principles.

On December 7th, the St. Louis Cardinals made their first major addition to the 2010 roster, inking starting pitcher Brad Penny to a one-year contract. The single year commitment guarantees the right-handed pitcher $7.5 million with an additional $1.5 million in possible incentives. The Cardinals have also reportedly agreed not to offer Penny arbitration if he obtains Type A status as a free agent after the season.

By now, many have covered the story of Penny's 2009 season, so I will only offer a brief recap. The newest Cardinal veteran will turn 32 in May of this coming season and is one year removed from a shoulder injury. That injury led to Penny signing a one-year deal with Boston for 2009, but the Red Sox released him in late August after he posted a 5.61 ERA in 131.2 innings pitched. His fastball lacked some of its previous zip early in the season as he returned from his shoulder injury. However, some of Penny's peripheral statistics including his BABIP seemed to indicate some poor luck was also part of his struggles in the AL East.

San Francisco quickly scooped up the veteran after his release and he rewarded the Giants with a strong final month of the season. The improvement that Penny showed in September garnered him the contract offer from the Cardinals this month. So the multi-million dollar question is,
what can the Cardinals expect to get for their $7.5 million investment in Brad Penny?

Most early projections, including Bill James and CHONE, are projecting Penny to rebound toward his career norms. This includes an ERA in the low 4's and a 2:1 strike out to walk ratio. If Penny can meet these projections and remain healthy he will certainly be worth $7.5 million in 2010. The righty is only two years removed from his breakout 2007 season in which he went 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA for the Dodgers, so there could be something impressive left in Penny's arm. If Dave Duncan can find ways to improve on Penny's recent performance the Cardinals could really get great value from this contract.

Using Penny's career and especially that 2007 season, here are some ways that Dave Duncan might be able to help Penny return to his All-Star form. Penny's 2007 success stands out when looking at traditional statistics like wins and ERA, but he had an ERA+ of 115 in the five seasons between 2003 and 2007. His FIP was consistently between 3.60 and 3.90 during those seasons as well. Penny's ailing shoulder is the most likely reason for his struggles in 208 and 2009, so if he is fully healthy that alone may return him close to his career numbers.

Two underlying statistics point to what made Brad Penny extremely successful in 2007, one of which plays right into Dave Duncan's specialty. At his best in 2007, Penny's ground ball rate was 48.7% compared to his career rate of 45.3% and 43.7% in 2009. If he buys into Duncan's ground ball inducing principles, it could lead to a real resurgence for Penny. The second peripheral statistic notable in Penny's 2007 season was an abnormally low home run rate. His home runs per 9 innings rate was cut in half to just .39 and his home runs per fly ball percentage was just 4.7% compared to his 13.0% career mark. Duncan may not be able to influence Penny's home run rates as directly as his ground ball tendencies, but a focus on keeping the ball low in the strike zone to induce ground balls may also reduce home runs if executed properly.

Penny rounds out a strong rotation with fellow veteran Kyle Lohse and Cy Young contenders Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. As long as Penny remains healthy, he seems likely to at least return to his career norms and provide a strong middle of the rotation arm for the Cardinals. If Duncan can refocus Brad Penny on the art of the ground ball, he might just tap into his full potential enough to actually make that Type A arbitration clause noteworthy next November.

When Life Gets in the Way

Inevitably, a baseball blog in the hands of a college student will fall by the way side. That is what I learned this year. It has been a long, long time since I have been able to update the site, but I'd like to change that.

Hot Stove season is in full swing and my last exam of the semester is tomorrow, so I'm going to be getting back into things around here. My apologies to anyone who has been checking for updates since June. Hopefully we'll be able to get things back into gear and add some more contributors to avoid these gaps in coverage that our young blog has experienced.

I just completed a course in Sports Economics this semester, so I might be writing about the finances of the off-season some in the coming weeks if that floats your boat. Also look for some of the typical Hot Stove coverage.

Hopefully we can get this thing back on track and provide our part to the plethora of great Cardinals blogs out here for fans. See you soon!

-ambill10

Organizational Depth Charts Series

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The Organizational Depth Chart Series will take a slightly different angle on the top prospects list that many Cardinals aficionados publish during the offseason. Rather than approaching the entire organization as a group, each entry in the series will highlight the top talent that the organization has to offer at a specific position. There are certainly many people out there with more knowledge than myself regarding our prospects, so feel free to let me know via the comments if you think that I missed a solid prospect for a certain position. Look for this series to kick off during the next offseason.
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Baseball Economics Series

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This Baseball Economics Series is a project that I am very excited about. I just completed an Economics of Sports course with a well respected sports economist that regularly appears in the media both locally and nationally. I will be taking the information that I learned in that class about the economics of Major League Baseball and applying it to events of interest to Cardinals fans.

Upcoming Posts:

Cardinals Under Contract

Time Value of Money in Baseball

Insuring Player Contracts in Baseball

Arbitration for Type A Free Agent Pitchers

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Prospect Introduction Series

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Our Prospect Introduction Series, an ongoing series here at Busch Birds, is designed to devote some attention to the young talent in the Cardinals minor league system. Hopefully we will see some of these prospects in St. Louis in the seasons ahead. Let us introduce you to:

Upcoming Posts (Targeted publishing date):

Look for our Busch Birds Top Prospects list, coming soon. We will publish our list and then cover each player in a Prospect Introduction of their own in the coming months!


Archived Posts:

Bryan Anderson (June 2008)

Colby Rasmus (June 2008)

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