What Can Duncan Do With a Penny?

A look at how the root of Brad Penny's previous success
plays right into Dave Duncan's coaching principles.

On December 7th, the St. Louis Cardinals made their first major addition to the 2010 roster, inking starting pitcher Brad Penny to a one-year contract. The single year commitment guarantees the right-handed pitcher $7.5 million with an additional $1.5 million in possible incentives. The Cardinals have also reportedly agreed not to offer Penny arbitration if he obtains Type A status as a free agent after the season.

By now, many have covered the story of Penny's 2009 season, so I will only offer a brief recap. The newest Cardinal veteran will turn 32 in May of this coming season and is one year removed from a shoulder injury. That injury led to Penny signing a one-year deal with Boston for 2009, but the Red Sox released him in late August after he posted a 5.61 ERA in 131.2 innings pitched. His fastball lacked some of its previous zip early in the season as he returned from his shoulder injury. However, some of Penny's peripheral statistics including his BABIP seemed to indicate some poor luck was also part of his struggles in the AL East.

San Francisco quickly scooped up the veteran after his release and he rewarded the Giants with a strong final month of the season. The improvement that Penny showed in September garnered him the contract offer from the Cardinals this month. So the multi-million dollar question is,
what can the Cardinals expect to get for their $7.5 million investment in Brad Penny?

Most early projections, including Bill James and CHONE, are projecting Penny to rebound toward his career norms. This includes an ERA in the low 4's and a 2:1 strike out to walk ratio. If Penny can meet these projections and remain healthy he will certainly be worth $7.5 million in 2010. The righty is only two years removed from his breakout 2007 season in which he went 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA for the Dodgers, so there could be something impressive left in Penny's arm. If Dave Duncan can find ways to improve on Penny's recent performance the Cardinals could really get great value from this contract.

Using Penny's career and especially that 2007 season, here are some ways that Dave Duncan might be able to help Penny return to his All-Star form. Penny's 2007 success stands out when looking at traditional statistics like wins and ERA, but he had an ERA+ of 115 in the five seasons between 2003 and 2007. His FIP was consistently between 3.60 and 3.90 during those seasons as well. Penny's ailing shoulder is the most likely reason for his struggles in 208 and 2009, so if he is fully healthy that alone may return him close to his career numbers.

Two underlying statistics point to what made Brad Penny extremely successful in 2007, one of which plays right into Dave Duncan's specialty. At his best in 2007, Penny's ground ball rate was 48.7% compared to his career rate of 45.3% and 43.7% in 2009. If he buys into Duncan's ground ball inducing principles, it could lead to a real resurgence for Penny. The second peripheral statistic notable in Penny's 2007 season was an abnormally low home run rate. His home runs per 9 innings rate was cut in half to just .39 and his home runs per fly ball percentage was just 4.7% compared to his 13.0% career mark. Duncan may not be able to influence Penny's home run rates as directly as his ground ball tendencies, but a focus on keeping the ball low in the strike zone to induce ground balls may also reduce home runs if executed properly.

Penny rounds out a strong rotation with fellow veteran Kyle Lohse and Cy Young contenders Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. As long as Penny remains healthy, he seems likely to at least return to his career norms and provide a strong middle of the rotation arm for the Cardinals. If Duncan can refocus Brad Penny on the art of the ground ball, he might just tap into his full potential enough to actually make that Type A arbitration clause noteworthy next November.