Contract Terms: Chris Carpenter signed a new contract with the Cardinals after the 2006 World Series Championship. The contract was worth $63.5 million over 5 years with a club option for 2012.
2007: $8.5 million
2008: $10.5 million
2009: $14 million
2010: $14.5 million
2011: $15 million
2012: $15 million (Club Option - $1 million Buyout)
The Rationale Then: Carpenter finished 3rd in the Cy Young Award voting in 2006 after winning the award in 2005. After missing the 2003 season due to injury, he averaged over 200 innings pitched from 2004 through 2006 as well. Carpenter also had an ERA+ of 139 during that period. Everything pointed to Carpenter anchoring the Cardinals rotation for the length of his contract. The Cardinals paid a very competitive price for Carpenter in 2006, although $15 million is a discount for an ace three winters later.
The Outlook Today: Hindsight is certainly 20/20. Carpenter's current contract replaced the final year of his previous deal worth $7 million and an option for 2008 worth $8 million. By agreeing to the current deal, the Cardinals paid an additional $4 million for Carpenter's injury riddled 2007 and 2008 campaigns. Carpenter resoundingly returned in 2009, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young Award voting. $14 million is a bargain price for a season that Fangraphs valued at roughly $25 million on the open market.
Moving Forward: Entering the 2010 season, Carpenter is certain to remain with the team for two seasons before the Cardinals must decide on his 2012 club option. There is not a significant concern that a healthy Carpenter would regress and not be worth his contract because he only has two states: Ace or Injured. If Carpenter remains healthy during the next two or three seasons, the overall contract will likely be viewed in a positive light despite the two lost years at the beginning. However, if Carpenter misses significant time during the remainder of his contract it will serve as a caution to the club in offering long-term contracts to pitchers with such questionable injury histories.
Chris Carpenter's current contract affirms the Cardinals typical aversion to long-term contracts for pitchers. It is impossible to predict what will happen with Carpenter's option year and beyond right now because there are too many unknowns. Carpenter will be 35 in April 2010, so he is unlikely to see another truly long-term contract in his career unless he pitches at a high level and healthy for the next three seasons in their entirety. Even then, he seems likely to end up in a situation similar to Andy Pettitte, currently pitching on single year contracts with the Yankees each year since 2007.
-ambill10
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