Finding A Partner

A lot of people, including Brian Burwell on my whole ride to work today, are shouting for the Cardinals to make a deal now. Burwell went so far as to say that he doesn't care about prudence, he just wants immediacy. It was amusing listening to Pat Parris trying to explain reality to him while Burwell acted like a child who didn't get the birthday present he wanted.

Anyway, that 101ESPN discussion was centered on this Rick Hummel article in the Post-Dispatch today. Burwell wasn't happy with DeWitt's answers, but I think they were very logical. For instance, DeWitt talked about the fact that there aren't really teams looking to deal meaningful talent this early in the season.

I have been trying to explain this to people for a couple weeks. It takes two to trade; John Mozeliak cannot force another team to give us their stud right handed bats just because we want one. Generally speaking, teams are most willing to deal if they are sinking fast and want to save money on an expensive player. How many teams are already in that situation, really?

In our own division, Pittsburgh has already abandoned ship and dealt their All-Star centerfielder, Nate McLouth, to the Braves. The Astros are also rumored to be willing to deal Miguel Tejada at this point. The problem with both of these struggling teams is that they are very unlikely to be willing to trade within the NL Central.

The NL West is home to three teams that are out of the division race by double digits, but there's a reason for that. San Diego would be willing to deal most likely, but unless the Cardinals solution is Kevin Kouzmanoff, I don't see anyone on their roster that seems to fit the Cardinals needs. The Diamondbacks are down and out, but most of their right handed bats are young players that are relatively inexpensive that Arizona plans to build around. The third member of this dubious NL West group is Colorado, who just thumped the Redbirds. Despite their recent offensive awakening, the Rockies roster seems lacking a desirable right handed bat that would reasonably be available.

The only team in the NL East that is completely out of the race is Washington. Glancing at the Nationals roster, there seems to be a lack of bats that would reasonably be available. Would Christian Guzman be a good investment if he could be had? The Nationals offense is solid, but no player jumps out as the answer to the Cardinals needs.

I'll take a look at possible trading partners in the AL in a follow-up later today. Time to get some work done!

Game Recap | Cardinals vs. Reds | June 1st

Cardinals 3 | Reds 5
Box Score

The Cardinals fell in the series opener against the Reds. The offense continued to struggle and could not muster enough runs to win despite a decent team pitching effort.

The Pitching

Todd Wellemeyer lasted 5.0 innings while allowing 4 runs, 3 earned runs. Wellemeyer yielded 5 hits and 2 walks in the game while striking out 4 Reds in the loss, his 5th of the season. Edinson Volquez left the game with an injury after the 1st inning, but Mike Lincoln entered for the Reds and pitched 3.0 innings to receive the victory.

Wellemeyer actually pitched well in the first few innings, but ran into trouble in the top of the 4th. Chris Dickerson led off the inning with a single, Cincinnati's first hit of the game. Wellemeyer looked to be unfazed as he retired Adam Rosales and Brandon Phillips, but the Reds struck with two outs. After a walk to Jay Bruce, Ramon Hernandez singled into right field. Rick Ankiel threw home to try to get Dickerson, but the throw bounced between Jason LaRue's legs and an error was charged to Ankiel. With Hernandez and Bruce on second and third respectively, Laynce Nix doubled into right field scoring both base runners.

The Reds built on their 3-2 lead in the top of the 5th against Wellemeyer adding a run on back-to-back singles by Brian Hanigan and Wilkin Castillo. Hanigan advanced to third base on Castillo's single and then scored by way of a Rosales sacrifice fly.

The Cardinals then used 5 relief pitchers to finish the final 4 innings. Trever Miller finished a scoreless sixth inning allowing just one single. Miller struck out Bruce and then retiring two right handed hitters.

Blaine Boyer entered for the 7th inning but only recorded two outs while one run on 2 hits and one walk before being relieved by Dennys Reyes. Reyes struck out the only batter he faced, Jay Bruce, to end the top of the 7th inning.

Chris Perez worked a hitless 8th inning, but was very erratic. Perez struck out 2 Reds, but Nix reached first base due to a wild pitch on his swinging third strike. Perez also hit a batter, but a scoreless inning is a scoreless inning.

Kyle McClellan completed the game pitching a scoreless 9th inning. McClellan also struggled with his control, walking 2 batters while recording a strike out and 2 ground outs. McClellan kept the game close, but it wasn't enough.

The Hitting

The Cardinals scored early, jumping out to a 2-0 lead, but struggled to find timely hitting at times.

The Cardinals scored in the first inning on back-to-back doubles by Colby Rasmus and Albert Pujols. Chris Duncan walked, but Volquez struck out Rick Ankiel and Jason LaRue to end the inning with Pujols and Duncan still on base.

Joe Thurston led off the 2nd inning with a ground rule double. Wellemeyer laid down a sacrifice bunt to move him to third base, but Brendan Ryan and Skip Schumaker both grounded out to first baseman Ramon Hernandez stranding Thurston at third.

Colby Rasmus led off the 3rd inning with a solo home run for the Cardinals second run, but hits would quickly become sparse. Rasmus, Pujols, and Thurston were the only Cardinals with a hit in the game, but they combined for 7 hits.

The final Cardinal run scored in the 7th inning. Thurston once again led off with a double and advanced to third on a ground out by Nick Stavinoha. Thurston then scored on a wild pitch with Brendan Ryan batting.

Thurston and Rasmus were the offensive stand outs tonight. Thurston finished the game 3 for 4 with two doubles and a 9th inning single that gave Ryan Ludwick a shot to tie the game that ended with warning track power. Rasmus finished 3 for 4 with a home run, a double, and a single. Pujols finished 1 for 3 with his first inning RBI double and a walk.

Final Thoughts

The Cardinals did not lose ground in the division due to a Milwaukee loss to the Marlins. Despite good news that Glaus will begin throwing tomorrow, the need for another power bat is becoming more and more obvious. Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel are not providing their expected offensive output, which is much more damaging to the offense than Thurston's play at third base. Somehow the Cardinals need to find more offense to remain near the top of the NL Central.

Prospect Reintroduction: Jess Todd

Almost one year ago, kotheb wrote the first entry in our Prospect Introduction Series. He chose to write about a Springfield Cardinals pitcher that was flying through the minor league system, Jess Todd. Last season Todd pitched as a starter for High-A Palm Beach, AA Springfield, and AAA Memphis. After Spring Training this season Todd rejoined the Memphis Redbirds, but was immediately placed in the bullpen.

Many early scouting reports on Jess Todd projected him as a reliever at the Major League level. One major factor in projecting him as a reliever is that Todd stands just 5'11" and there is a stigma against Major League starting pitchers being under 6 feet tall. Another reason to cast Jess Todd as a reliever is that he already possesses a good four seam fastball and slider combination, with the ability to mix a circle change and two seam fastball into his pitch selection.

Right handed relievers can often be very successful with just a good fastball and slider combination and Todd is showing that ability for Memphis. In 2009, Todd has appeared in 18 games for Memphis, finishing 13 and recording 9 saves. He has also accrued a record of 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA. While a 3.13 ERA is nothing to sneeze at, Todd's 2.09 FIP implies that he is pitching even better than his ERA would lead you to believe.

Jess Todd is also striking out more than a batter per inning so far as a reliever and has allowed just one home run in 23.1 innings this year. Todd has a strike out to walk ratio of 30:7 and a 1.087 WHIP. He is maintaining such a low WHIP by allowing opposing batters to hit just .215 against him despite a .322 BABIP. Todd's BABIP at all three stops in 2008 was .300 or less, so batters are actually getting more batted balls to fall in so far this year than they did last season. The small sample size of this year innings mean that Todd's BABIP is likely to fall more closely to career norm, actually improving on his current performance!

Todd is just 23 years old, and if it weren't for the right handed relief log jam at the top of the Cardinals system he would almost certainly be pitching in the majors. Due to not being on the 40-man roster, Todd is presumably behind Josh Kinney in the right handed relief depth chart should someone be needed in St. Louis. Todd seemed to have a lot to offer as a starter, but he is essentially Major League ready as a relief pitcher.

Ryan Franklin may be the Cardinals closer right now, but with Jess Todd stacking up behind Jason Motte, Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, and Josh Kinney (not to mention Blaine Boyer) the Cardinals have a lot of young depth in right handed relief pitching. It would be surprising to not see the Cardinals deal at least one young, short duty righty for some offensive help in 2009 because it will be difficult to fit so many talented arms in the 2010 bullpen and the organization would be wasting value by leaving a player like Jess Todd in Memphis beyond this year.

Kotheb might have been a bit optimistic in hoping that Todd would compete for a rotation spot in 2009, but it is very likely that we will see Jess Todd in St. Louis by the end of the year. Some have speculated that Todd could be returned to starting depending on organizational need, but only time will tell. A September call up this year could be a good test for his ability, because at his current pace Todd will have nothing left to prove in the minor league system by 2010.

Series Preview | Cardinals vs. Reds | June 1st - 4th

The St. Louis Cardinals return home to face the Cincinnati Reds Monday night. The Cardinals are coming off a 3-3 road trip through Milwaukee and San Francisco. The Reds enter St. Louis reeling from a sweep in Milwaukee, meaning that Cincinnati needs a sweep against the Cardinals for Jay Bruce's prediction of a division lead at the end of the road trip to have any chance of coming true. The Cardinals are hoping that they simply left their bats at home and that they are waiting for them in Busch Stadium.

**Note: As of Monday afternoon the pitching situation is in flux due to these developing stories. I will update the Series Preview once the Lohse, Pineiro, Thompson, and/or pitcher(s) from Memphis fiasco gets straightened out. The matchups below are based on the currently Probable Pitchers on the Cardinals website.**

Game 1: Monday, June 1st | 7:15 CDT

The series opener features Todd Wellemeyer (5-4 5.02) against Edinson Volquez (4-2 4.25). The Reds are activating Volquez from the DL for Monday's start, so rust could be a factor for him. Volquez was already averaging 5.7 BB/9 innings, so rustiness could make for a long night for the young Reds star. The Cardinals have hit Volquez well in the past as well, with Albert Pujols leading the way with 2 home runs in 6 at bats. Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, and Chris Duncan have had past success against him as well. Wellemeyer has been incredibly inconsistent in 2009, but can hopefully settle down at home against a Reds team that he has historically shut down well.

Game 2: Tuesday, June 2nd | 7:15 CDT

The second game of the series features Brad Thompson (0-1 4.30) pitching opposite Bronson Arroyo (7-3 5.12). Tuesday will mark Thompson's first big league start of 2009. Thompson last pitched on May 17th, so he may be a bit rusty. Jerry Hairston is the only Reds regular that has hit Thompson well previously. Arroyo is coming off back to back good starts, but he has been up and down most of the season. The Cardinals have also hit Arroyo well in his career, led by Rick Ankiel who has hit .385 with 3 home runs in 13 career at bats against the former Red Sox pitcher.

Game 3: Wednesday, June 3rd | 7:15 CDT

The third game of this long series will likely see Kyle Lohse (4-3 3.98) take the mound against Johnny Cueto (4-3 2.53). Joel Pineiro has been been scratched due to back spasms. Lohse missed his last start recovering from an arm issue caused by being hit by a pitch. Lohse has had some successes and some failures against the hitters of his former team in his career. The Reds have gotten a very good sophomore campaign out of the young Cueto. The Cardinals have had some success against Cueto in limited experience, but Albert Pujols is still looking for his first career hit off of Cueto. The Cardinals will be much better off if Lohse can go in this one rather than having to call up a Memphis pitcher.

Game 4: Thursday, June 4th | 7:15 CDT


The finale of this marathon series will be a battle between Chris Carpenter (3-0 0.62) and Aaron Harang (5-5 4.19). Carpenter continues to pitch well in 2009 despite allowing his first earned runs of the year in his last start. Unsurprisingly, Carpenter has generally dominated Reds players in his career. Harang pitched very well against the Cardinals earlier this year in Cincinnati, but he has not been quite so dominant against them over his career. It's hard not to feel good about a game that Carpenter is starting.

Series Predictions

The Cardinals really need to win at home. A split is not enough for the Cardinals in this series with how well the Brewers are playing. The biggest question mark entering the series is the Cardinals offense. Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick need to start hitting in their return from injuries and the rest of the offense should follow. Could this be the week that Mozeliak makes a move to address third base as Troy Glaus's prognosis becomes more clear?

Chris Duncan: Power Outage?

Chris Duncan opened the 2009 season hitting very well. In the month of April Duncan hit .304/.417/.522 with a 146 OPS+. Even while hitting well though, he only hit 2 home runs. He did have 7 doubles and now has 13 at the end of May. However, Duncan hit just 2 more home runs in May bringing his season total to 4 home runs.

May was not just a tough month for his home run production, as his numbers for the month fell to .230/.292/.391 for a meager .683 OPS from the big left fielder. Duncan has been able to produce 27 RBI already this season, but the reason his bat has been so valuable in the past is the power he can provide.

Tony LaRussa is currently hitting Duncan in front of Albert Pujols. This suites him well due to his .350 OBP so far this season - which is consistent with his .352 career OBP. Duncan is valuable in that position, but the Cardinals expected him to be more of a middle of the order power hitter than simply someone with a good OBP to get on base in front of Albert. Skip Schumaker, Yadier Molina, and Joe Thurston can all get on base at the same rate as Duncan, his power is what usually set him apart in previous seasons.

The problem is that Duncan is still defensively challenged. He tends to make most of the routine plays, but still struggles to make plays moving toward the wall. Many of these plays are difficult, but usually made by fielders like Schumaker, Ludwick, Ankiel, Rasmus, and even Stavinoha. Duncan's defense is usually tolerable because many teams sacrifice left field defense for an offensive stud that would otherwise be a DH in the AL format, but at some point the balance tips against him if he cannot hit for power.

With no legitimate power threat at third base due to Glaus' injury, the Cardinals especially need power from their corner outfield positions. Duncan is not struggling as much as fellow outfielders Rick Ankiel and Colby Rasmus at the plate, but the other two are superior defenders and if they start hitting Duncan could see more and more time on the bench if he cannot improve on his May numbers, especially in the slugging department. The Cardinals lineup will benefit greatly if he can find his home run swing again soon.